The asteroid 2024 years4 (like the one shown in the concept of this artist) are visible flakes of light, but the infrared light that emanates means that James Webb’s space telescope will be a powerful tool to study it. Credit: NASA/JPL-CALTECH
Update February 24, 2025: with new observations during the weekend, the chances of 2024 years hit the land in 2032 have decreased at 0.0039 percent, actually eliminating concerns on this meeting. 2024 years 4 has now fallen from the most risky asteroid In the automated Sentry list of the NASA of potentially dangerous asteroids to the seventh higher position.
In December, the last alert system (Atlas) of the terrestrial impact asteroid, located in Chile, identified an asteroid that automatically designated 2024 years4. The solar system is flooded with asteroids that vary in size from sand cereals to planetoids and NASA keeps trace as much as possible, transfering their trajectories to make sure they remain in their orbital lanes and outside the path of the earth. But after a few weeks of monitoring, on 2024 years he began to trigger the alarm bells, when he showed a small but not negligible possibility of influencing on earth on a future close approach on 22 December 2032.
This estimated risk has oscillated in the last few days. Today, NASA has announced that new observations of the last two nights have reduced the possibility of an impact with the land at 0.28 percent. As the most data arrive to further perfect the orbit, this is likely that this continues to be reduced. But only two days ago, the chances had grown at 3.1 percent, establishing a record for the maximum probability for any asteroid of its dimensions never traced by NASA.
Anything higher than 1 % eliminates an automated alarm and a dedicated tracking program. As such, even if the risk remains small, NASA and other agencies around the world have trained all eyes on the Interloper, to understand it better and its future path.
What is the risk?
At this moment, astronomers believe that 2024 YR4 is 130 to 300 foot (from 40 to 90 meters) in width. Since the calculations show that 2024 YR4 would have had an impact with an energy of 7.7 megatons, of the same size as the Digohorn nuclear test fallen on the Christmas island in 1962. It also adapts to the range of dimensions and energies that scientists attribute to the impact of Tunguska in 1908, who have flat the trees and raided in reindeer but did not kill people.
In other words, the earth has already undergone such a blow, with little loss of human lives. The asteroid is far from a killer planet. This does not mean that it does not prepare a huge amount of energy – with a direct blow, it could devastate a city. But it is not a coincidence that Tunguska, the greatest impact of asteroid in recorded history, has affected an unpoposed area; This describes most of the earth, above all since over 70 percent of the surface is ocean.
If the possibility of surprising land of 2024 is currently 0.28 percent, the probabilities are still 99.72 percent that does not do it. Those are likely that most of us would take. However, NASA and other agencies will continue to perfect the probability of collision in the coming months.
How are we monitoring 2024 years4?
Earth -based telescopes will be able to continue monitoring the asteroid until April. After that point, he will withdraw from the view to his next approach in 2028. (It is the approach after what has an impact possibility.) To take advantage of this limited period, an international group of astronomers has procured time on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). In addition to being a huge space -based telescope with exceptional precision, JWST also observes in the infrared, which is the key to the observations of the asteroids.
Asteroids are small and dark. Compared to moons or planets, they do not reflect much light, but varies according to their composition. And so far, 2024 YR4 has been observed by visible light tools. Astronomes currently do not have a way to ascertain if the asteroid is larger and not very reflective or small and shiny. Observing in the infrared helps why an asteroid emanates its infrared light. This should give astronomers a much better idea of the true dimension of the asteroid.
These observations will occur at the beginning of March. In May, astronomers will look again. The five -month span from the first detection of the asteroid until it disappears gives a longer basic line from which to calculate its orbit, helping to further perfect its path. The observations in May, since it runs outwards from the sun, will also tell astronomers how the object is changing the temperature, giving them some suggestions on what it is done.
As the most observations come and the calculations change, the Sentrly web page keeps the updated estimates of the probability of impact and the force of the asteroid.
What could we do?
NASA is preparing for a long time for a circumstance like this. The Dart mission, which had an impact on the asteroid dwelling in September 2022, tested if a direct impact could deviate an asteroid from its path – and it did it. Laboratory tests also show that laser deflements work. And scientists discussed for a long time using nuclear weapons, both to divert the asteroid, or stop (Aka, the “Blow It To Smitheens” approach). Which of these approaches would be more effective for 2024 YR4 remains to be seen. But the next observations will provide astronomers with a lot more information to put towards solutions, if it is necessary to be necessary.
Dawn Grander is a researcher from Johns Hopkins’ applied physics laboratory who works in planetary defense and was co-investigating Dart mission. “The difficult thing here,” he says, “is that the dimensions of the object combined with the short warning time make the mitigation method complicated. If the asteroid is bigger, we will need a bigger impulse to deviate the asteroid. If the asteroid is smaller, an impulse could break or fragment, the asteroid.”
To be clear, the chances remain small and now that they have decreased drastically, it is likely that further improvements will make them even smaller. But in the event that a solution is needed – for 2024 2024 YR4 or any other asteroid – the other great factor would be timing. “If we wanted to perform a reconnaissance mission or mitigate the asteroid, we would need to start building that space vehicle as soon as possible,” says Grander. And while we are eight years old up to any possible impact, we only have a few months to observe the asteroid. Subsequently, we should wait until 2028 for new information – and then it will be enough.
“Mitigation missions take time to work,” adds Grander. “Especially if we hope to deviate the object, a small speed speed to the asteroid needs years to ensure that the orbit of the asteroid will change so that it does not affect the earth.”
This could leave astronomers only with the interruption option, breaking it in smaller pieces. And while the films have speculated on these missions, no human agency has yet brought this business out. Spatial missions normally require planning decades. On the other hand, there would be no lack of motivation from various agencies to make the mission happen.
The most likely result is still that the asteroid will navigate harmlessly from the earth. However, if you are nervous, maybe don’t look at Armageddeon For a while.
